Community Discussions
Explore the latest discussions and community conversations related to this domain.
probability - Betting Strategy Games: What's the approach - Mathematics Stack Exchange
Main Post: probability - Betting Strategy Games: What's the approach - Mathematics Stack Exchange
Single Bet Roulette Strategy
Main Post:
European roulette won the honorary status of the "king of casino games", and there is nothing surprising in the fact that over the centuries of its existence, European roulette has attracted a lot of adventurers and fans of easy money, who tried to create a win-win strategy for playing roulette. And it is logical that most of these strategies in modern realities are absolutely useless. Therefore, the strategy of the game of European roulette is not based on an attempt to "cheat" the outcome of the game, but rather on an attempt to reduce the loss of the roulette player.
One of the main principles of the strategy of profitable European roulette is to make external bets. For the most part, these are so-called "chance" bets, where the probability of a particular outcome is approximately 50%, but the chances of winning are much greater. In addition, a rather winning, although more risky, strategy of the game of European roulette is considered to bet on a combination of numbers – two numbers (split), three numbers (street), four numbers (corner).
Very important component of the European roulette strategy is the number of bets. Newcomers are often make a gross mistake, making several bets at the same time. In fact, it is much more profitable to make only one bet in each round.
Let's imagine that you decide to play at odds and bet $1 on every even number and $2 on every odd number. Total in the amount of your costs is $54. If you get an even number, your winnings will be $35 (1*35). If you roll odd, the payout will be $70 (2*35). If it comes up zero, you lose all of that set – $54.
If you follow the strategy of one bet, the results of the next round of European roulette will look very different for you. Let's imagine you only place one bet – $35 on even numbers only. If your bet wins and it falls even, you win $70. If the bet loses, you lose $35. Your costs in this case are lower ($35 vs. $54), and the chance of winning in each of the two cases is exactly the same. Thus, adhering to the strategy of one bet, you save on losing and lose less than you could by making several different bets at the same time.
Today we have considered one of the most famous roulette strategies, and there are many of them on the market. And what strategies do you use? Share in the comments.
Top Comment:
#1: There is no profitable strategy for European Roulette except for "Be the House".
#2: While you are correct that hedging your bets in Roulette is a waste of money, your explanation is practically incomprehensible.
Best Ball draft strategy - treat it like a prop bet.
Main Post:
This time of year we see a lot of fantasy football advice and discussion that blends Best Ball and Redraft ADPs, strategies, and roster construction. The drafting approach to Best Ball vs Redraft is night and day. The player ranks within each position varies widely as well.
Best Ball is basically a season long prop bet. You aren't trying to have a pretty good roster. You want the best roster. In redraft you can have the 5th, 7th or sometimes even 10th best draft and still win your league if you make good moves throughout the season.
Whatever your budget is, I do not recommend entering 1 or 2 high buy-in Best Ball leagues. I recommend entering 5, 10, or even 20+ leagues for a total buy-in that fits the same budget.
The Strategy:
Zero Hero QB / TE / (RB)
To put it simply, you want 1 top tier QB/TE and 1 backup drafted in one of the final four rounds. This can mean guys like Kelce/Andrews/Allen/Mahomes, but doesn't mean you have to spend any of your first 4 picks on those positions. Something like Kyler+Hockensen or Pitts+Brady is still fine and can be gotten in rounds 5-9.
You are gambling that the top QB & TE you drafted will stay healthy and play every week. Having Mahomes+Kyler is a waste of draft capital. If they both score 35 points one week, you get 35 points.
If you can take 2 top RB in the first 2 picks or 3 out of your first 4 picks, then you can avoid RB until last 2-3 rounds as well. If you spend high draft capital on multiple RBs, then you can't waste mid round draft capital on "just in case" RBs. Either the ones you got stay healthy and play great, or you lost that league.
Every other pick should be WR. This is the position where quantity > quality. You want a mix of ceiling and floor guys, but mostly ceiling/upside.
Hero WR
I don't generally recommend this, but if you are doing more than 5-7 drafts, it could be worth a shot. Basically the same concept, but you are betting your top 3-4 WR will all perform at or above their draft position.
Here you are spending something like 4 out your first 5 or 6 rounds on WR. The only other position drafted would be RB. Then you stop taking WR and take RB and 3QB 3TE only. Once you have 5-6RB, 3QB, 3TE, you can fill your last couple picks with WR.
TL;DR:
Generally speaking, just avoid drafting for balance. You don't put all your $$$ in one basket/draft, but each draft, you do put all your faith in the minimal number of players at 2-3 positions and then fill your roster with depth at the other position or 2.
Post is already longer than intended, but one other small thing -- Know your league settings. An individual 10/12 man league where all the $ goes to winners of that league is VERY different than something like Underdog Mania/Puppy Bowl where league winners are then placed in a giant tournament the last few weeks of the season. The type of draft/roster that can win a lot of individual leagues is not the same as one trying to compete for a giant league.
Top Comment:
Any data to support these strategies?
Field bet Craps Strategy
Main Post: Field bet Craps Strategy
Top Comment:
I don't even know where to begin explaining how foolish this is. I love craps but if you lose on the dumbest bet on the table your system suggests bet again on the dumbest bet on the table, but bet more? Who came up with this, Steve Wynn? Can't possibly lose 18 in a row, right? Have you played craps before? You sure can.
Sports betting strategies
Main Post:
So strategies that can make money with trading are not public for obvious reasons. I was wondering if it is also true for betting. Do you think people are creating betting strategies to actually win versus bookmaker? Other then simple ones like arbitrage between 2 bookmakers.
Top Comment: Just bet on the person who is going to win it’s not that difficult
What is the best strategy for betting in roulette?
Main Post:
In 00 roulette there are 38 numbers which are equally possible to hit. If you are betting on individual numbers, you usually get a payout of 1:35. Obviously the house has the advantage there. There are other ways to bet, with various payouts which all favor the house, including betting twelves and betting a column, both which pay 2 to 1. And in roulette if you hit on a bet, you get to keep that bet, and get the payout. So if you are betting stacks of 10 on a column and hit you win 20, and take your initial 10 back. You can only hit on 12 of 38, so your payout favors the house. Exact same with betting the twelves. 2 to 1 payout on 12 of 38.
So I was wondering why my favorite strategy for betting is not the best. I bet one of the twelves with one stack of 10, and one of the columns with one stack of 10, making a cross to cover 20 total numbers out of the possible 38. If I hit on any of the 16 where they don't cross, I win on either my twelves or column bet and take 30 off the board while only betting 20. If I hit on any of the 4 where they do cross, I take 60 off the board. I am covering 20 total numbers, which is more than half of the 38 possible, and am winning. I know my strategy automatically makes the 0 and 00 losers, but so does any strategy that you don't actually bet on them.
Top Comment: If you bet 20 with your pattern, then your expected value to win back is: 30*(16/38)+60*(4/38) = 18.947 If you would instead bet that 20 on a single number, say 69, you would win 36*20 = 720 if that number comes up, so the expected value would be: 20*36*(1/38) = 18.947 And if you bet it all on black you would win 40 on half the spins (except for 0/00), so your expected winning would be 40*(18/28) = 18.947 See a pattern? The expected winning on a roulette table are exactly the same no matter what you bet on. There is no strategy, only luck. Spreading the bets out a bit like you do reduces the variance of the outcomes a bit though, but whether that's good or bad is debatable. After all, if you would bet on every number you will have perfectly minimized the variance but then you can only lose, never win. If your really want to play, then just play whatever numbers, patterns or colors you think are pretty or feel lucky, but don't do it because you think it will actually help you win. There is only luck in roulette.
Why Boxing Your Exacta Bet is a Winning Strategy
Main Post:
Exacta is probably one of my favorite bets to make.
Top Comment: 1: it’s a piss poor strategy. 2: don’t be out here posting your own bad content.
is this a good dice strategy for 85% win chance and bet is 0.001
Main Post: is this a good dice strategy for 85% win chance and bet is 0.001
Top Comment:
Add on first streak of 2 or 3 losses add your bet amount instead
Optimal betting strategy for casino bonus? - blackjack
Main Post: Optimal betting strategy for casino bonus? - blackjack
Is this strategy viable?
Main Post:
Let's say I have a betting strategy like this: On my first hand, I bet $1. If I win, I stay on one dollar.
If I lose, that is where the fun begins. Every time I lose, I double my bet. If I lose my first hand, I start my second hand at $2. That way, if I win, I make back the money that I lose PLUS $1,
This can work for basically any dollar amount. Say I lose 5 hands in a row. I lost (1+2+4+8+16) = 31 dollars. However, if I win hand #6 for $32, I made back all my money PLUS a dollar!
Now, there are some flaws (e.g. if I double or split a hand) but I can simply adjust the strategy as follows: Add all the money I have lost so far, plus one dollar, and bet that...
I was discussing this with my brother (we are both total newbies and neither of us have stepped foot into a casino) and we find no holes in this strategy. There is however the issue of losing like 10 hands in a row and running out of money, but this is highly unlikely if you are playing with perfect basic strategy,,,
So, I place my strategy before the Ultimate Judges, the cynics here on reddit, and ask you to smash my theories with your hammers of wisdom...
Top Comment:
Who’s turn is it to tell him